研究成果
资产负债扩张对中国实体经济的影响:挤入还是挤出?
发布时间:2019-10-15 浏览次数:

Yuan, Z., Rao, C., & Shi, S. (2019). Balance sheet expansion and economic growth in China: Crowd in or crowd out?.China Economic Review.

 

Abstract

Balance sheet expansion is crucial to understand the historic path, current slowdown and future trend of economic growth in China. As the financial system transforms national savings into investment, balance sheet expands simultaneously. According to changing impacts of balance sheet expansion on real economy, economic growth in China from 1998 to 2016 can be divided into the crowd-in stage and the crowd-out stage. In the first stage (1998–2007), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy in, raised TFP dramatically and accelerated economic growth. In the second stage (2008–2016), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy out, with stagnant TFP and decelerated economic growth. Balance sheet expansion has slowed down since 2014, but it continues to exert crowding out effects on China's real economy. We argue that balance sheet expansion is crucial for China's future economic growth. In the long term, structural reforms, especially reforms in the financial system, could increase growth potential significantly. In the short term, financial system reforms should focus on generating sufficient cash flows to boost aggregate demand.

 

JEL classification

E02; E44; O40

 

Keywords

Financial system; Assets and liabilities; Real economy

MORE  >>
通知公告
发布时间:2018-09-07 浏览次数:
· 中国宏观经济系列讲座91期
MORE  >>
研究成果
联系我们


地  址:上海市国权路600号
邮  编:200433
E-mail: essrc@fudan.edu.cn